OPINION
Market Rating Before FOMC MeetingJan 31
The WHO declared monkeypox a global health emergency: How will the markets react?
The markets have reached the brink of a new crisis after the Covid-19 was declared as pandemic and the ‘Black Swan’ effect it experienced in 2020 was almost 2 years later.
In the shadow of concerns about a new wave of coronavirus in the autumn months in the shadow of the low-momentum global vaccination campaign, a critical notification came from the World Health Organization (WHO) over the weekend.
Director-General of the World Health Organization Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus reported on Saturday that they have declared the monkeypox virus a ‘global health emergency’. So far, more than 16 thousand cases have been reported from 75 countries, Ghebreyesus said, adding that there have been five deaths due to the virus.
What is the Monkeypox Virus?
Monkeypox was discovered in 1958 when two outbreaks of a pox-like disease occurred in colonies of monkeys kept for research. Despite being named “monkeypox,” the source of the disease remains unknown. However, African rodents and non-human primates (like monkeys) might harbor the virus and infect people. The first human case of monkeypox was recorded in 1970. Prior to the 2022 outbreak, monkeypox had been reported in people in several central and western African countries. Previously, almost all monkeypox cases in people outside of Africa were linked to international travel to countries where the disease commonly occurs or through imported animals. These cases occurred on multiple continents.
How will the markets react?
With the supply bottlenecks already created by the coronavirus pandemic in the markets, the surge brought by the war on commodities, and the aggressive tightening in global monetary policies, recession concerns are being expressed quite loudly. In addition, as a result of the tightening in monetary policies, the level of investor stress in the markets is relatively high, while we are closely monitoring that the outlook for long-term treasury yields is putting pressure on assets with high risk sensitivity.
Despite the fact that the alarm level has been raised to the highest level recently due to the rapid spread of monkeypox globally, it is seen that the markets have not shown an aggressive reflex in the new week in the first quotations. However, at this point, the attitude of the public authorities of developed countries towards the course of the Monkeypox is extremely critical.
In particular, the fact that countries such as China that adopt a ‘zero case’ strategy and receive a significant share of global trade are bringing limiting social mobility back to the table may exacerbate the supply bottlenecks and supply shortages created by the coronavirus. In addition, under the volatility caused by the Russia–Ukraine war in the commodity market and the tightening outlook in global monetary policies, the pricing story in the markets may evolve into ‘stagflation'. We do not expect pricing beyond these limits to have a dramatic reaction to Monkeypox.
In the shadow of concerns about a new wave of coronavirus in the autumn months in the shadow of the low-momentum global vaccination campaign, a critical notification came from the World Health Organization (WHO) over the weekend.
Director-General of the World Health Organization Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus reported on Saturday that they have declared the monkeypox virus a ‘global health emergency’. So far, more than 16 thousand cases have been reported from 75 countries, Ghebreyesus said, adding that there have been five deaths due to the virus.
What is the Monkeypox Virus?
Monkeypox was discovered in 1958 when two outbreaks of a pox-like disease occurred in colonies of monkeys kept for research. Despite being named “monkeypox,” the source of the disease remains unknown. However, African rodents and non-human primates (like monkeys) might harbor the virus and infect people. The first human case of monkeypox was recorded in 1970. Prior to the 2022 outbreak, monkeypox had been reported in people in several central and western African countries. Previously, almost all monkeypox cases in people outside of Africa were linked to international travel to countries where the disease commonly occurs or through imported animals. These cases occurred on multiple continents.
How will the markets react?
With the supply bottlenecks already created by the coronavirus pandemic in the markets, the surge brought by the war on commodities, and the aggressive tightening in global monetary policies, recession concerns are being expressed quite loudly. In addition, as a result of the tightening in monetary policies, the level of investor stress in the markets is relatively high, while we are closely monitoring that the outlook for long-term treasury yields is putting pressure on assets with high risk sensitivity.
Despite the fact that the alarm level has been raised to the highest level recently due to the rapid spread of monkeypox globally, it is seen that the markets have not shown an aggressive reflex in the new week in the first quotations. However, at this point, the attitude of the public authorities of developed countries towards the course of the Monkeypox is extremely critical.
In particular, the fact that countries such as China that adopt a ‘zero case’ strategy and receive a significant share of global trade are bringing limiting social mobility back to the table may exacerbate the supply bottlenecks and supply shortages created by the coronavirus. In addition, under the volatility caused by the Russia–Ukraine war in the commodity market and the tightening outlook in global monetary policies, the pricing story in the markets may evolve into ‘stagflation'. We do not expect pricing beyond these limits to have a dramatic reaction to Monkeypox.
