OPINION
Market Rating Before FOMC MeetingJan 31
Market Rating Before Nonfarm Payrolls
In the global markets, eyes are turned to the nonfarm payrolls (NFP) data from the USA. Market expectations for NFP, which will be announced by the US Department of Labor today, are for an increase of 200 thousand.
In November, NFP had increased by 263 thousand, exceeding the market's estimate of 250 thousand. In the same period, the unemployment rate remained stable at 3.7 percent, while average hourly earnings increased by 0.6 percent compared to the previous month and increased by 5.1 percent on an annual basis.
NFP is followed as a determining function in the rate of monetary policy tightening of the US Federal Reserve (FED). The TDI, which may be above 200 thousand in December, may provide an opportunity for a correction to the dollar by creating an expectation that the rate of increase in interest rates, which the FED has already reduced to 50 basis points, will be a new cycle, and may weigh on stocks and major country currencies.
On the other hand, if the NFP falls short of projections and a more moderate average hourly earnings data materializes, it could put market pressure on the FED for further slowdown. This may allow investor positions to transition to safe-haven products.
