OPINION
Market Rating Before FOMC MeetingJan 31
Sounds of 75 Bps Rising After Exceeding Expectations U.S. CPI Data
According to the data the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) of the U.S. Department of Labor published yesterday, the consumer price index (CPI) increased by %0.1 in August compared to the previous month and reached %8.3, above the market level of %8.1 on an annual basis. In this period, core CPI was %0.6 per month and %6.3 per year.
Looking at the details of the report announced by BoLS, the group with the highest increase on a monthly basis was energy services with %2.1, followed by electricity with %1.5, health services and food with %0.8 and the housing sector with %0.7. Considering the declining groups on a monthly basis, the main energy group was the leader with %10.1, followed by the fuel oil group with %5.9 and the energy group with %5.0.
The report, which draws attention to the fact that fuel prices increased by %68.8 on an annual basis, noted that energy services increased by %19.8, food products by %11.4 and transportation services by %11.3. The groups with the lowest rate of increase in this period were recorded as health services with a rate of %4.1 and clothing with a rate of %5.1.
Looking at energy and non-food products, new vehicle prices increased by %0.8 in August and by %10.1 on an annual basis. Second-hand vehicle prices declined by %0.1 on a monthly basis, while rising %7.8 on an annual basis.
Energy prices, which are high due to the effects of the Russia-Ukraine war, are the main driving cause of inflation in the United States. In addition, the re-implementation of lockdown measures in some large cities after the recent increase in coronavirus cases in China may be among the reasons for the price increase in the food sector through supply chain disruptions.
However, it should be noted that despite the high levels of inflation, it tends to decline from the peak of 41 years with %9.1 on an annual basis in June, to %8.5 in July and then %8.3 in this data. FED's tightening path has a big impact here. In addition, the decline in international commodity prices and the decline in the energy group on a monthly basis also have a share here.
Besides, after the published inflation data, there is pressure in the global markets due to the increase in the possibility of a 75 basis point rate hike days before the critical September meeting of the US Federal Reserve (FED). As a matter of fact, the expectation that the FED will raise interest rates by 75 basis points instantly rose to %66.0 in the CME Group.
On the other hand, while the SP500 index, which is the leading indicator, opened at 4 119 yesterday; after the CPI was announced, it decreased to 3 937 points with a loss of approximately %5. Currently, it is priced at 3 950 levels.
The technology index NQ100, which closed yesterday at 12 049 points level with a %5.66 decline, is priced at about 12 100 points level with the reactions received today.
Also, there is a downturn in the cryptocurrency market. Bitcoin, which is the leader in cryptocurrencies, closed yesterday at $20,182 with a loss of about %10. Today, BTC, which opened at $ 20 084, is traded at $ 20 270 with a gain of %0.56, due to the reactions coming from its optimistic stance on risk appetite.
The report, which draws attention to the fact that fuel prices increased by %68.8 on an annual basis, noted that energy services increased by %19.8, food products by %11.4 and transportation services by %11.3. The groups with the lowest rate of increase in this period were recorded as health services with a rate of %4.1 and clothing with a rate of %5.1.
Looking at energy and non-food products, new vehicle prices increased by %0.8 in August and by %10.1 on an annual basis. Second-hand vehicle prices declined by %0.1 on a monthly basis, while rising %7.8 on an annual basis.
Energy prices, which are high due to the effects of the Russia-Ukraine war, are the main driving cause of inflation in the United States. In addition, the re-implementation of lockdown measures in some large cities after the recent increase in coronavirus cases in China may be among the reasons for the price increase in the food sector through supply chain disruptions.
However, it should be noted that despite the high levels of inflation, it tends to decline from the peak of 41 years with %9.1 on an annual basis in June, to %8.5 in July and then %8.3 in this data. FED's tightening path has a big impact here. In addition, the decline in international commodity prices and the decline in the energy group on a monthly basis also have a share here.
Besides, after the published inflation data, there is pressure in the global markets due to the increase in the possibility of a 75 basis point rate hike days before the critical September meeting of the US Federal Reserve (FED). As a matter of fact, the expectation that the FED will raise interest rates by 75 basis points instantly rose to %66.0 in the CME Group.
On the other hand, while the SP500 index, which is the leading indicator, opened at 4 119 yesterday; after the CPI was announced, it decreased to 3 937 points with a loss of approximately %5. Currently, it is priced at 3 950 levels.
The technology index NQ100, which closed yesterday at 12 049 points level with a %5.66 decline, is priced at about 12 100 points level with the reactions received today.
Also, there is a downturn in the cryptocurrency market. Bitcoin, which is the leader in cryptocurrencies, closed yesterday at $20,182 with a loss of about %10. Today, BTC, which opened at $ 20 084, is traded at $ 20 270 with a gain of %0.56, due to the reactions coming from its optimistic stance on risk appetite.
