FOMC Minutes

Investors around the world are wondering when the US Federal Reserve will try to cut back on asset purchases.

• The Fed’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) September meeting minutes will be released on Wednesday, and are to be scrutinized for more clues about what the Fed can or will do in the coming months.

The minutes may provide clues as to whether the Fed will move towards withdrawing the stimulus and, to a lesser extent, potentially a rate hike in 2022.

US CPI

The consumer price index, considered an important indicator when drawing up its monetary policy by the US Federal Reserve, is expected to rise in September.

• The US core inflation figure is to be released on Wednesday.

Rising energy prices are likely to contribute to the headline CPI, while core prices, which exclude food and energy, may begin to reflect rising housing costs.

In the US, data on retail sales will be released on Friday.

China data

China releases foreign trade and inflation data on Wednesday and Thursday, respectively.

• Market watcher IHS Markit said China’s factory gate inflation is expected to remain high in September as inflationary pressures mount due to material shortages.

According to economists surveyed by the US-based Wall Street Journal, exports that constitute the growth engine of the economy in China, are expected to increase by 21% in September compared to the previous year. That’s a decline from a 25.6% gain in August.

Meanwhile, imports are expected to increase by 19.1% year-on-year, down from the 33.1% increase in August.

• Inflation in China is expected to rise by 0.9% in September.

IMF report

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) is releasing its World Economic Outlook report on Tuesday.

A slower recovery in developing countries with less access to Covid-19 vaccines, the IMF’s latest estimates, is expected to show a relatively rapid economic recovery in advanced economies.

Economic Calendar

Tuesday: UK Average Income Index + Bonus, Change in Unemployment Claims Number, Germany ZEW Economic Sentiment, US Jobs and Staff Change Rate (JOLTS)

Wednesday: China imports and export data, UK GDP, Manufacturing Production, Monthly GDP 3A/3A Change

• US Core Consumer Price Index (CPI), Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Meeting Minutes

Thursday: Australian Employment Change, Chinese CPI

• US Unemployment Claims, Producer Price Index, Crude Oil Stocks

Friday: US Core Retail Sales, Retail Sales