Thursday / November 18

Thursday / November 18

US in talks with China,  Japan on oil

The US administration has asked some of the world's largest oil-consuming countries to consider opening up some of their crude oil reserves in a coordinated effort to lower global prices and stimulate the post-pandemic economic recovery.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), led by Saudi Arabia, and allied producers led by Russia, put out an additional 400,000 barrels of oil per day to the market on a monthly basis. The group known as OPEC+ ignored US President Joe Biden's calls for further production increases.

Global oil prices hit seven-year highs at the end of October as oil demand rebounded to near-pre-pandemic levels faster than supply.

In recent weeks, Biden and senior administration officials have raised the issue with China, as well as close allies such as Japan, South Korea and India, sources tell Reuters.

Sources warned that such negotiations have not been concluded and that no final decision has been made on whether to pursue this or any other course of action regarding oil prices.

The White House declined to comment on the detailed content of certain talks with other countries. "No decision has been made," said a spokesman for the White House National Security Council.

The spokesperson said the White House has been "consulting with other energy consumers to ensure that global energy supplies and prices do not hinder the global economic recovery" for weeks. They added that they are considering a range of tools as to whether and when action is necessary.

The US's use of the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) could be in the form of selling and/or lending from the reserve, sources say.

 
CBRT meeting

The Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT) will announce its interest rate decision at 14:00 on Thursday.

According to a Reuters poll, the CBRT is expected to reduce the policy rate from 16 percent to 15 percent.

President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, in his speech at the party's parliamentary group meeting, said, "On this path, I cannot and will not be with those who defend interest rates.” “As long as I am in this position, I will continue my fight against interests until the end.

Following Erdogan's comment, USDTRY rate broke a new record by exceeding 10.67 Wednesday.

Iran nuclear deal

US President Biden's national security adviser, Jake Sullivan, has brought up the idea of ​​an interim agreement with his Israeli counterpart to gain more time for nuclear talks with Iran.

The Biden administration continues to insist on restoring the entire 2015 nuclear deal. Nuclear negotiations will resume on 29 November in Vienna.

The rationale for an interim agreement is that Iran's dramatic nuclear advances have brought Tehran very close to the levels of uranium enrichment required for a nuclear weapon, according to Axios.

According to US sources, the interim agreement could allow the US and its allies to release some of the frozen Iranian assets in exchange for Iran freezing its nuclear enrichment plans.

ECB policy

European Central Bank ECB board member Isabel Schnabel said on Wednesday, pointing to divisions among policymakers, that the ECB should be prepared to rein in inflation in the eurozone if it is more resilient than forecast.

Eurozone inflation hit 4.1% last month, more than double the ECB's target, as consumers pay almost a quarter more for energy and demand is recovering faster than last year's pandemic-induced slump.

Schnabel reiterated the ECB's view that price growth will moderate next year, but warned that the outlook is becoming more uncertain and policymakers should keep their options open as they chart the path forward for policy in December.

"This means avoiding the mistake of a premature tightening of monetary policy in response to a temporary and possibly short-lived inflation spike," Schnabel said.

US stocks

US stocks fell on Wednesday over continuing inflation fears.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 211.17 points, or 0.5%. The S&P 500 fell 0.2% to 4,688.67 and the Nasdaq Composite slid 0.3% to 15,921.57.

Markets had three weeks in which all three main averages moved upwards after economic data and corporate earnings signaled that U.S. consumers increased spending despite rising prices. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq are still high for the week, while the Dow lags behind.