Thursday / March 31

Thursday / March 31

Putin's inner circle

Russian President Vladimir Putin was misled by advisers who were too scared to tell him how poorly the war in Ukraine is going and how damaging Western sanctions have been, American and European officials said Wednesday.

“We have information that Putin felt misled by the Russian military, which has resulted in persistent tension between Putin and his military leadership,” Kate Bedingfield, White House communications director, told reporters.

“We believe that Putin is being misinformed by his advisers about how badly the Russian military is performing and how the Russian economy is being crippled by sanctions because his senior advisors are too afraid to tell him the truth,” she said.

The head of Britain's GCHQ spy service said on Wednesday that new intelligence showed some Russian soldiers in Ukraine had refused to carry out orders, sabotaged their own equipment and accidentally shot down one of their own aircraft.

Germany's Russian gas reliance

Germany’s heavy reliance on Russian energy could tip its economy into recession, an independent economic think tank warned on Wednesday.

There are rapidly rising concerns over what Russia’s unprovoked invasion of Ukraine will mean for European economies. The war has contributed to higher energy prices, it’s pushing up food prices too and there are additional expenses to deal with a massive influx of Ukrainians fleeing the war.

There is also the ongoing threat that Moscow might choose to cut its supplies of natural gas into the bloc — which could mean the collapse for many businesses.

“The high dependence on Russian energy supplies entails a considerable risk of lower economic output and even a recession with significantly higher inflation rates,” the German Council of Economic Experts, which advises the government in Berlin, said in a report Wednesday.

Germany’s Chancellor Olaf Scholz expressed a similar concern last week when addressing the country’s Parliament, saying that imposing an immediate ban on Russia energy imports “would mean plunging our country and the whole of Europe into a recession.”

Germany triggered an emergency plan to manage gas supplies on Wednesday under which Europe's largest economy could ration power if a standoff over a Russian demand to pay for fuel with roubles disrupts or halts supplies.

Moscow's insistence on rouble payments for the Russian gas that meets a third of Europe's annual energy needs has galvanised others in Europe: Greece called an emergency meeting of suppliers, the Dutch government said it would urge consumers to use less gas and the French energy regulator told consumers not to panic.

Rouble payments

Russia plans to keep the contract currency for gas exports to Europe unchanged but will seek final payment in roubles as one of the options to switch the currency of gas trade, two Russian sources said on Wednesday.

President Vladimir Putin has said Russia, the world's top natural gas producer, will soon require "unfriendly" countries to pay for fuel in roubles, raising alarm about a possible gas crunch in Europe.

"Only payment currency is changing, the contract currency is not," one source said. For example, for deals clinched in euros the payment should be made at the official rouble/euro exchange rate set by the Russian central bank, that source said, according to Reuters.

The Russian president told German Chancellor Olaf Scholz by phone on Wednesday that nothing would change for European partners and payments would still be made in euros and transferred to Gazprom bank, a German spokesperson said.

US stocks

U.S. stocks slid on Wednesday as investors monitored developments in Ukraine and the bond market.

The S&P 500 fell 0.63% to 4,602.45, and Nasdaq Composite lost 1.21% to 14,442.27. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 65.38 points, or 0.19%, to 35,228.81.