NEWSLETTER
Thursday / September 29Sep 29
Monday / January 31
Russia-Ukraine tension
The US and Western countries continue to express fear that Russia can invade Ukraine at any time.
In an interview with foreign media on Friday evening, one day after the phone call with US President Biden, Ukrainian President Zelensky stated that the alarmist statements in western capitals and the media had consequences for his country's economy.
Zelensky said they saw hundreds of thousands of Russian soldiers piling up on the border and their intelligence was watching, but he wanted to meet with Vladimir Putin to talk about Donbass, and said he still believed diplomacy was the way out.
The Kremlin said the written US response during the week failed to respond to Russia's security concerns.
In a phone call with French President Emmanuel Macron on Friday, after weeks of personal silence, Putin presented his initial reaction to the US and NATO responses to Russia's demands.
The Kremlin said Putin told Macron he would review responses from Washington and NATO this week before deciding on further action.
Current and former US officials say indications such as blood supply to Russian troops on the Ukrainian border mean Putin is ready to decide on an invasion, according to Reuters.
RBA rates
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is holding its policy meeting on Tuesday.
RBA Chairman Philip Lowe is making moves to raise interest rates from a record low of 0.1 percent as he discusses the future of the bank's $350 billion bond-buying program.
Lowe's first and foremost goal is to keep actual and expected progress towards the central bank's full employment and inflation targets within the 2 percent to 3 percent target band on a sustainable basis. The second is about the functioning of the Australian bond market, and the third is about the actions of other central banks, according to the Financial Review.
The Fed's directing that it will increase interest rates as of March in its increasing messaging, and the fact that the central banks in New Zealand and England have entered the cycle of increasing rates, are among the factors that put pressure on the bank to give signs of when it will start to increase interest rates, along with inflation.
ECB meeting
The European Central Bank (ECB) is holding its policy meeting on Thursday.
What kind of strategy the bank will choose to get out of the easy money policies, with the rising inflation and the Fed's starting to shape its own policy is a question the markets and President Lagarde will be grappling with.
Analysts predict that even in a hawkish scenario, the ECB's first-rate hike won't come before the spring of 2023. Despite ECB chief Christine Lagarde's statement that any hikes this year are "very unlikely", some investors are pricing in a 20-basis point increase before 2023, according to Reuters.
This leaves the bank and Lagarde with a difficult communication challenge after the February 3 policy meeting.
The ECB's current policy guidance predicts that interest rates will rise "shortly after" the end of bond purchases, which are scheduled to continue until at least the fourth quarter of this year and as needed.
BoE meeting
The Bank of England is expected to raise interest rates again next week.
Deutsche Bank is one of those who expect the BoE to hike 25 basis points (0.25%) from January and raise the Bank Rate to 0.5%.
"We expect a unanimous decision," the DB said in a note to clients.
Deutsche said it expects the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) to confirm that the corporate bond-buying program will stop as the bank rate reaches 0.5%.
Data
The US workforce figures, which have been disappointing for the Biden administration in recent months, are to be released on Friday.
Weekly Economic calendar
Monday: China - Spring Festival Holiday, Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index, German Consumer Price Index (CPI)
Tuesday: China - Spring Festival, Australian Retail Sales, Australia (RBA) Rate Decision, RBA Currency Statement
German Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), German Unemployment Rate Change, UK Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI)
Canadian Gross Domestic Product (GDP), US ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), US Jobs and Staff Change Rate (JOLTS)
Wednesday: New Zealand Employment Change, Eurozone Consumer Price Index (CPI)
US ADP Non-Farm Employment Change, US Crude Oil Stocks
Thursday: UK Composite PMI, Services Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), Bank of England (BoE) Rate Decision, BoE Monetary Policy Rate
The US and Western countries continue to express fear that Russia can invade Ukraine at any time.
In an interview with foreign media on Friday evening, one day after the phone call with US President Biden, Ukrainian President Zelensky stated that the alarmist statements in western capitals and the media had consequences for his country's economy.
Zelensky said they saw hundreds of thousands of Russian soldiers piling up on the border and their intelligence was watching, but he wanted to meet with Vladimir Putin to talk about Donbass, and said he still believed diplomacy was the way out.
The Kremlin said the written US response during the week failed to respond to Russia's security concerns.
In a phone call with French President Emmanuel Macron on Friday, after weeks of personal silence, Putin presented his initial reaction to the US and NATO responses to Russia's demands.
The Kremlin said Putin told Macron he would review responses from Washington and NATO this week before deciding on further action.
Current and former US officials say indications such as blood supply to Russian troops on the Ukrainian border mean Putin is ready to decide on an invasion, according to Reuters.
RBA rates
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is holding its policy meeting on Tuesday.
RBA Chairman Philip Lowe is making moves to raise interest rates from a record low of 0.1 percent as he discusses the future of the bank's $350 billion bond-buying program.
Lowe's first and foremost goal is to keep actual and expected progress towards the central bank's full employment and inflation targets within the 2 percent to 3 percent target band on a sustainable basis. The second is about the functioning of the Australian bond market, and the third is about the actions of other central banks, according to the Financial Review.
The Fed's directing that it will increase interest rates as of March in its increasing messaging, and the fact that the central banks in New Zealand and England have entered the cycle of increasing rates, are among the factors that put pressure on the bank to give signs of when it will start to increase interest rates, along with inflation.
ECB meeting
The European Central Bank (ECB) is holding its policy meeting on Thursday.
What kind of strategy the bank will choose to get out of the easy money policies, with the rising inflation and the Fed's starting to shape its own policy is a question the markets and President Lagarde will be grappling with.
Analysts predict that even in a hawkish scenario, the ECB's first-rate hike won't come before the spring of 2023. Despite ECB chief Christine Lagarde's statement that any hikes this year are "very unlikely", some investors are pricing in a 20-basis point increase before 2023, according to Reuters.
This leaves the bank and Lagarde with a difficult communication challenge after the February 3 policy meeting.
The ECB's current policy guidance predicts that interest rates will rise "shortly after" the end of bond purchases, which are scheduled to continue until at least the fourth quarter of this year and as needed.
BoE meeting
The Bank of England is expected to raise interest rates again next week.
Deutsche Bank is one of those who expect the BoE to hike 25 basis points (0.25%) from January and raise the Bank Rate to 0.5%.
"We expect a unanimous decision," the DB said in a note to clients.
Deutsche said it expects the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) to confirm that the corporate bond-buying program will stop as the bank rate reaches 0.5%.
Data
The US workforce figures, which have been disappointing for the Biden administration in recent months, are to be released on Friday.
Weekly Economic calendar
Monday: China - Spring Festival Holiday, Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index, German Consumer Price Index (CPI)
Tuesday: China - Spring Festival, Australian Retail Sales, Australia (RBA) Rate Decision, RBA Currency Statement
German Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), German Unemployment Rate Change, UK Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI)
Canadian Gross Domestic Product (GDP), US ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), US Jobs and Staff Change Rate (JOLTS)
Wednesday: New Zealand Employment Change, Eurozone Consumer Price Index (CPI)
US ADP Non-Farm Employment Change, US Crude Oil Stocks
Thursday: UK Composite PMI, Services Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), Bank of England (BoE) Rate Decision, BoE Monetary Policy Rate
