EURUSD: Parity Preparing for Another Dramatic Fall


On the second trading day of the week, the increase in investor risk appetite in financial markets supported developed country currencies to some extent. However, aside from the recession risks to the European economy, the expectations towards the aggressive monetary tightening cycle of the US Federal Reserve have been keeping the downside possibilities alive in parity. Technically speaking, it is seen that the parity tends to form a 'second peak' with the reactions that came into play after falling to a 20-year low of 0.9535 on September 28. The 0.9955 – 1.0045 range marked by the Fibonacci retracement is an extremely strong resistance zone. As a matter of fact, the Fibonacci time zones also signal that the recovery may end in this region. On the other hand, while the 200-period exponential moving average (EMA) indicates that the downside potential is still preserved, the 0.9955 – 1.0045 range may create a selling opportunity. The end of the minor trend with the second peak could trigger a new dramatic fall to 0.9690 behind 0.9780.

Support: 0.9780 – 0.9690 – 0.9585
Resistance: 0.9955 – 1.0045 – 1.0135