ANALYSIS
NQ100 Finds Support from PPIApr 14
EURAUD Made Medium-Term Trend Change
Recession risks are easing in Europe. Earlier in the week, the German Federal Statistical Office (Destatis) reported that industrial production, the engine of the country's economy, grew by 0.6% in September, after a 1.2% decline in August. Yesterday, the European Statistical Office (Eurostat) revealed that retail sales, which is the leading indicator of domestic demand in the region, increased by 0.4 in September after a 0.3 decrease in August. At this point, it is extremely critical that influential figures of the European Central Bank (ECB) explain that interest rate hikes should continue strongly despite the recession risks. On the other hand, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) downshifted in interest rate hikes. RBA, which increased interest rates by 50 basis points in its 5 meetings between June and September, decreased the policy tightening rate to 25 basis points in the October and November meetings. This leaves the Australian dollar under pressure from the euro in terms of real return expectations. Technically speaking, the parity seems to have ended the intermediate bearish trend with permanent closes. If the parity can complete its transition to 1.5945 resistance on its retracement path, it can take back its losses up to 1.6400 which is cut by the Fibonacci 38.2% retracement line. In the possible retreats, 1.5160 and 1.4700 supports will be followed.
